In December, Donald Trump marked a significant moment by ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, becoming the first elected president to do so since Ronald Reagan. This act symbolized a notable year for the stock market, coinciding with Trump’s victory in the upcoming 2024 elections.

The current sense of optimism in the U.S. economy is reminiscent of the Reagan era, with business sentiment at an all-time high. CEO surveys consistently highlight regulatory concerns, but the new administration—led by the Department of Government Efficiency, with figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy—appears poised to tackle these issues aggressively.

Despite a slight market correction at the end of December, the U.S. stock market concluded one of its most successful years, serving as a key indicator of future economic performance. Goldman Sachs projects an 11% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, followed by a 7% rise in 2026, laying a strong foundation for advertising and marketing investments. This environment, coupled with reduced regulatory burdens, points to a vibrant mergers and acquisitions landscape in 2025, with early signs already emerging.

While the U.S. stands out positively amidst globally uneven growth, there’s considerable optimism in regions like South America and parts of Asia, including India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, and Malaysia, all presenting substantial growth potential.

In China, the government has initiated economic stimulus measures to address concerns regarding the property market, stock market fluctuations, and the debt of state-owned enterprises, which includes a planned increase in the central government deficit amid uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies.

Europe faces challenges, particularly in its leading economies—Germany, the UK, and France—where political and economic instability could hinder growth relative to global trends. The UK is grappling with the risk of stagflation, as the Labour government has yet to unveil a coherent growth strategy.

A major challenge that looms over both sides of the Atlantic is persistent inflation, which may result in slower-than-expected reductions in interest rates. Initial projections suggested interest rates in the U.S. would fall to around 3.25%, but they now appear more likely to settle between 3.5% and 3.75%.

Politically, it seems unlikely that Trump’s administration will ease tensions between the U.S. and China; in fact, the divide may widen further. President Xi’s decision to decline Trump’s inauguration invitation underscores this growing rift. Consequently, China may focus on reducing its exports to the U.S. while seeking to expand its presence in other emerging markets.

With the U.S. GDP at approximately $28 trillion and China’s at $18 trillion, there still exists a significant $60 trillion global economy outside of these two nations. Moving forward, China aims to foster relationships and enhance trade with developing countries, often harboring dislike for developed ones.

Should the U.S. impose tariffs, China is expected to retaliate while attempting to deepen its ties with Europe. Recent tariff discussions on Chinese electric vehicles have led to internal debates among European nations, with Germany and Spain initially opposing tariffs before conceding.

The potential for tariffs has implications for the UK, making the appointment of Peter Mandelson as the new ambassador to Washington a strategic choice, potentially more beneficial than his previous role at Oxford University. There are questions regarding whether Trump will foster a unique relationship with the UK, given his ties to Scotland.

On other political fronts, indications regarding Ukraine remain grim, and a ceasefire might inadvertently strengthen President Putin’s position. However, Trump is expected to play a role in negotiating a peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, further countering Iran’s influence.

The marketing and advertising sector faced challenges in 2024, with major platforms such as Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon growing by about 15%, and a projected growth of 12% in 2025. This has occurred even as they maintained or reduced their marketing expenditures. Moving forward, more stable marketing budgets may be anticipated for 2025 and beyond.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to transform the industry, with a shift from initial excitement in 2023 to practical applications in 2024, leading to streamlined operations by 2025. Major tech companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with the expectation that soon, the returns on such investments will materialize.

An essential challenge remains the need for effective marketing models. General Motors, for example, implemented a groundbreaking new marketing strategy for its brands using AI technology, setting a trailblazing precedent for future marketing efforts. Companies are increasingly seeking efficiency in their advertising expenditures as they respond to intensified competition from new entrants in various industries.

Creative services are under pressure as clients demand greater efficiency. Agencies that do not adapt to the AI landscape face genuine risks of falling behind. This evolving challenge was a significant driver for the recently announced merger between Omnicom and IPG, seen as a response to the demands of the digital economy. Yet, the market has reacted with skepticism, evidenced by declines in shares of both companies following the merger announcement.

Looking ahead to 2025, marketing clients will need to navigate geopolitical fragmentation and economic challenges while seeking to optimize spending in a less vibrant growth environment characterized by higher inflation and interest rates.

Sir Martin Sorrell is the founder and executive chairman of the digital advertising and marketing services firm S4 Capital.